Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted March 6 Administrators Share Posted March 6 SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTH TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over parts of the Florida Peninsula and South Carolina, and late afternoon into tonight over parts of west-central to north Texas. ...FL... A warm/moist air mass is present across the central/southeast portions of the FL Peninsula today, where pockets of daytime heating will yield afternoon moderate MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to form across this area during the afternoon, tracking slowly eastward toward the coast. Forecast soundings suggest low/deep layer shear is not particularly strong, but given the favorable thermodynamics, a few strong to briefly severe storms capable of hail and damaging winds will be possible - especially near the east coast. The severe threat should diminish after sunset. ...SC... Multiple weak shortwave troughs are rotating across the Carolinas today. One feature is currently over western GA, accompanied by a cluster of showers. This activity will move into SC this afternoon, where daytime heating will help to steepen low level lapse rates and lead to at least marginal CAPE values. Low level winds will be quite veered and relatively weak. However, a storm or two may be briefly intense with gusty winds or hail. ...TX... Clear skies will lead of strong heating and steepening lapse rates across west-central TX today. Most CAM solutions suggest one or two storms could form in the well-mixed zone near San Angelo late this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates would support a risk of hail or damaging wind gusts in these storms. After dark, a strengthening southerly low-level jet would likely allow this activity to become more numerous and spread northeastward toward the Red River. The overall severe threat would likely weaken after dark, but could still pose a risk of occasional hail or gusty winds. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/06/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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