Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted March 6 Administrators Share Posted March 6 SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across a portion of the southern Great Plains. Large hail should be the primary hazard. ...Synopsis... A series of lower-amplitude shortwave impulses will eject into/through the basal portion of a broad upper trough across the Southwest. The bulk of fast mid-level westerlies will largely be confined across north Mexico, but will overspread parts of south TX by early Friday in association with a leading shortwave impulse. A lee surface cyclone will diurnally deepen across the TX Panhandle with a Pacific cold front overtaking the dryline late in west TX. To the northeast of the surface low, an initially quasi-stationary front should accelerate southeastward early Friday. ...Southern KS to central TX... Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of north TX towards the Ozark Plateau. This convection will be tied to low-level warm theta-e advection attendant to a southerly low-level jet. With generally weak MUCAPE, small to marginally severe hail may occur with the more robust cores. This convection should linger through most of the day across north TX with regeneration occurring on the west side of the broader convective swath, along the eastern periphery of the steep mid-level lapse rate plume. The degree of boundary-layer moistening to the west/northwest of this activity will likely be tempered into the afternoon. Guidance depicts relatively large spread for a D2 forecast with regard to the northwest spatial extent of the modified moisture return and the overall degree of buoyancy is questionable. Still, with robust boundary-layer heating west of the dryline, the triple-point region near the surface cyclone across the far eastern TX Panhandle into northwest OK should be a favored corridor for evening large hail potential. Within the downstream warm conveyor, at least elevated convection will be likely near/north of the quasi-stationary front into south-central KS. A severe hail threat should extend here given the feed of very steep mid-level lapse rates upstream. Farther south from western to north TX into the Edwards Plateau, convective development should be tied to mid-level height falls and increasing low-level convergence as the Pacific front impinges on the dryline on Thursday night. This should favor modest upscale growth into multiple clusters with embedded transient supercells capable of producing sporadic severe hail and locally strong to severe wind gusts. There is below-average confidence in whether a greater than marginal severe threat will spread into the I-35 corridor/Metroplex vicinity before 12Z Fri. ..Grams.. 03/06/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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