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SPC Mar 6, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z


Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across a portion of the
southern Great Plains. Large hail should be the primary hazard.

A series of lower-amplitude shortwave impulses will eject
into/through the basal portion of a broad upper trough across the
Southwest. The bulk of fast mid-level westerlies will largely be
confined across north Mexico, but will overspread parts of south TX
by early Friday in association with a leading shortwave impulse. A
lee surface cyclone will diurnally deepen across the TX Panhandle
with a Pacific cold front overtaking the dryline late in west TX. To
the northeast of the surface low, an initially quasi-stationary
front should accelerate southeastward early Friday. 

...Southern KS to central TX...
Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms should be ongoing at
12Z Thursday across parts of north TX towards the Ozark Plateau.
This convection will be tied to low-level warm theta-e advection
attendant to a southerly low-level jet. With generally weak MUCAPE,
small to marginally severe hail may occur with the more robust
cores. This convection should linger through most of the day across
north TX with regeneration occurring on the west side of the broader
convective swath, along the eastern periphery of the steep mid-level
lapse rate plume. The degree of boundary-layer moistening to the
west/northwest of this activity will likely be tempered into the
afternoon. Guidance depicts relatively large spread for a D2
forecast with regard to the northwest spatial extent of the modified
moisture return and the overall degree of buoyancy is questionable.
Still, with robust boundary-layer heating west of the dryline, the
triple-point region near the surface cyclone across the far eastern
TX Panhandle into northwest OK should be a favored corridor for
evening large hail potential. Within the downstream warm conveyor,
at least elevated convection will be likely near/north of the
quasi-stationary front into south-central KS. A severe hail threat
should extend here given the feed of very steep mid-level lapse
rates upstream.

Farther south from western to north TX into the Edwards Plateau,
convective development should be tied to mid-level height falls and
increasing low-level convergence as the Pacific front impinges on
the dryline on Thursday night. This should favor modest upscale
growth into multiple clusters with embedded transient supercells
capable of producing sporadic severe hail and locally strong to
severe wind gusts. There is below-average confidence in whether a
greater than marginal severe threat will spread into the I-35
corridor/Metroplex vicinity before 12Z Fri.

..Grams.. 03/06/2024

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