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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook


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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1020 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024

Valid 061700Z - 071200Z

The previous forecast remains largely on track. The only appreciable
change made to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook was to expand Elevated
highlights eastward into central Minnesota and northern Iowa. Here,
the latest guidance consensus shows 25-30 percent RH coinciding with
15-20 mph sustained southerly surface winds for at least a few hours
this afternoon.

..Squitieri.. 03/06/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024/

...Synopsis...
A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will track eastward
across the northern Plains, while an attendant surface cyclone and
trailing cold front move east-northeastward across the Dakotas early
in the period. Along/ahead of the front, a tightening surface
pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a 45-50
kt low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface
winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across parts of eastern SD,
western MN, northeast NE, and far northwest IA. Here, 25-35 percent
minimum RH will support an elevated to near-critical fire-weather
risk, given the strong/gusty surface winds atop modestly receptive
fuels.

Farther south, midlevel westerly flow will strengthen across the
southern Rockies -- ahead of an approaching midlevel trough/low
moving ashore over southern CA. The strengthening downslope flow off
the southern Rockies, and related lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO,
will favor 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with
higher gusts) amid 15-20 percent afternoon RH across the southern
High Plains. As a result, elevated to spotty critical fire-weather
conditions are expected.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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