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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes
or additions made.

..Squitieri.. 03/06/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024/

...Synopsis...
Within the base of an amplifying large-scale trough over the western
CONUS, strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the
southern Rockies and adjacent Plains. In response, a lee surface
cyclone will deepen in the vicinity of the TX/OK Panhandles, while a
southward-extending dryline sharpens over West TX.

...Southern High Plains...
West of the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying will contribute
to a deeply mixed boundary layer, extending up to around 4.5 km AGL
across portions of eastern NM and West TX -- despite increasing
mid/high-level clouds ahead of the large-scale trough. This will
support an expansive area of 12-15 percent minimum RH and
temperatures in the lower 70s across the area. At the same time, a
tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the lee
cyclone, coupled with strong winds through the deepening boundary
layer, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface
winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). Given receptive fuels over the
southern High Plains (80th+ percentile ERCs), critical fire-weather
conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM and West TX.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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