Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted March 6 Administrators Share Posted March 6 SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH FL...SC...AND WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening over parts of south Florida and South Carolina, and from late afternoon into tonight over west-central to northeast Texas. ...20Z Update... Across the FL Peninsula and SC vicinity, severe potential appears limited through about 23Z before convection shifts off the Atlantic coast. Over TX, initial cumulus development in the Concho Valley should be the precursor to a couple storms by early evening. Primary outlook change was to expand a bit east-northeast across a portion of the Red River Valley. Recent RRFS and 12Z MPAS runs, along with observational trends support potential for isolated thunderstorm development near the slowly advancing warm front. Lower-end severe hail and strong wind gusts appear possible. ..Grams.. 03/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024/ ...FL... A warm/moist air mass is present across the central/southeast portions of the FL Peninsula today, where pockets of daytime heating will yield afternoon moderate MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to form across this area during the afternoon, tracking slowly eastward toward the coast. Forecast soundings suggest low/deep layer shear is not particularly strong, but given the favorable thermodynamics, a few strong to briefly severe storms capable of hail and damaging winds will be possible - especially near the east coast. The severe threat should diminish after sunset. ...SC... Multiple weak shortwave troughs are rotating across the Carolinas today. One feature is currently over western GA, accompanied by a cluster of showers. This activity will move into SC this afternoon, where daytime heating will help to steepen low level lapse rates and lead to at least marginal CAPE values. Low level winds will be quite veered and relatively weak. However, a storm or two may be briefly intense with gusty winds or hail. ...TX... Clear skies will lead of strong heating and steepening lapse rates across west-central TX today. Most CAM solutions suggest one or two storms could form in the well-mixed zone near San Angelo late this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates would support a risk of hail or damaging wind gusts in these storms. After dark, a strengthening southerly low-level jet would likely allow this activity to become more numerous and spread northeastward toward the Red River. The overall severe threat would likely weaken after dark, but could still pose a risk of occasional hail or gusty winds. Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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