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SPC Mar 6, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z


Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening
over parts of south Florida and South Carolina, and from late
afternoon into tonight over west-central to northeast Texas.

...20Z Update...
Across the FL Peninsula and SC vicinity, severe potential appears
limited through about 23Z before convection shifts off the Atlantic
coast. Over TX, initial cumulus development in the Concho Valley
should be the precursor to a couple storms by early evening. Primary
outlook change was to expand a bit east-northeast across a portion
of the Red River Valley. Recent RRFS and 12Z MPAS runs, along with
observational trends support potential for isolated thunderstorm
development near the slowly advancing warm front. Lower-end severe
hail and strong wind gusts appear possible.

..Grams.. 03/06/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024/

A warm/moist air mass is present across the central/southeast
portions of the FL Peninsula today, where pockets of daytime heating
will yield afternoon moderate MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg.  At
least isolated thunderstorms are expected to form across this area
during the afternoon, tracking slowly eastward toward the coast. 
Forecast soundings suggest low/deep layer shear is not particularly
strong, but given the favorable thermodynamics, a few strong to
briefly severe storms capable of hail and damaging winds will be
possible - especially near the east coast.  The severe threat should
diminish after sunset.

Multiple weak shortwave troughs are rotating across the Carolinas
today.  One feature is currently over western GA, accompanied by a
cluster of showers.  This activity will move into SC this afternoon,
where daytime heating will help to steepen low level lapse rates and
lead to at least marginal CAPE values.  Low level winds will be
quite veered and relatively weak.  However, a storm or two may be
briefly intense with gusty winds or hail.

Clear skies will lead of strong heating and steepening lapse rates
across west-central TX today.  Most CAM solutions suggest one or two
storms could form in the well-mixed zone near San Angelo late this
afternoon.  Steep mid-level lapse rates would support a risk of hail
or damaging wind gusts in these storms.  After dark, a strengthening
southerly low-level jet would likely allow this activity to become
more numerous and spread northeastward toward the Red River.  The
overall severe threat would likely weaken after dark, but could
still pose a risk of occasional hail or gusty winds.

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