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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024

Valid 081200Z - 141200Z

A mid-level trough will traverse the southern U.S. as a surface cold
front sweeps across the southern Plains Day 3/Friday. Critically dry
and windy conditions will likely coincide with the International
border late Friday afternoon. It is unclear how much of this area
may experience appreciable precipitation accumulations in the
Thursday-Friday time frame, precluding the addition of 70 percent
Critical probabilities at this time.

Thereafter, another mid-level trough will approach the central CONUS
and promote strong surface lee troughing across the Plains states
early to mid next week. Downslope flow may support critically dry
and windy surface conditions across the southern High Plains through
at least Days 6-7/Monday-Tuesday, where 40 percent Critical
probabilities have been introduced. There is also the possibility
that these conditions may persist into Day 8/Wednesday. However,
details on the exact timing and evolution of next week's mid-level
trough remain uncertain, precluding higher Day 6-7 Critical
probabilities and any Day 8 probabilities this outlook. The latest
medium range guidance is also hinting at the possibility for
Critically dry/windy conditions across portions of the central into
northern Plains early to mid next week. However, these conditions
may be preceded by appreciable rainfall accumulations, so Critical
probabilities have been withheld until the impacts of any potential
future rainfall become clearer.

..Squitieri.. 03/06/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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