Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted March 7 Administrators Posted March 7 SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are expected to spread eastward from east Texas/Oklahoma across the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast States Friday through Friday night. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast States... A positively tilted upper trough and associated mid/upper-level speed max will advance eastward across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley on Friday. A weak surface low should develop from the southern OK/north TX border vicinity towards the ArkLaTex through the day, while another surface low consolidates across the mid MS Valley into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Rich low-level moisture characterized by mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints will attempt to advance northward in tandem with a warm front across east TX into the lower MS Valley through Friday evening. Clusters of convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across parts of east TX/OK. This activity may continue to pose mainly a threat for isolated large hail as it moves northeastward, given the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. With time, the airmass across east TX into LA/AR/MS should gradually destabilize with filtered daytime heating and low-level moistening occurring. Strengthening low-level warm advection and large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough should encourage the development of additional convection along/south of the warm front through Friday afternoon. With sufficient low-level shear to support updraft rotation, any supercell that develops in this regime could produce a tornado. But, convective mode will likely tend to become messy rather quickly, as thunderstorm mergers result in multiple clusters capable of producing damaging winds. A somewhat separate area of severe-hail potential should also exist across parts of eastern OK into AR Friday afternoon along and southeast of a cold front. This region will be in somewhat closer proximity to colder temperatures aloft with the upper trough, and steeper mid-level lapse rates. Assuming sufficient destabilization can occur across this region, ample effective bulk shear (around 45-55 kt) will easily support supercells with an associated threat for large hail and occasional damaging winds. The Slight Risk has been expanded a bit northward in AR and westward in TX/OK to account for this potential. The threat for tornadoes and damaging winds should continue into Friday evening and overnight/early Saturday morning across parts of MS into AL, as enhanced shear with a southerly low-level jet will likely persist across these areas. There is still some uncertainty with the northern extent of surface-based severe thunderstorm potential here, as convection that develops during the day across LA/MS may slow the northward advance of greater low-level moisture. Still, the 00Z NAM and 03Z RAP show some chance for weak, but sufficient, instability late Friday/early Saturday across central MS/AL. The Slight Risk has accordingly been expanded northward to account for this potential. There was not enough confidence in a more focused corridor of tornado risk to include greater severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 03/07/2024 Read more View the full article Quote
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