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SPC Mar 7, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook


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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EAST
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, large hail, and
damaging winds are expected to spread eastward from east
Texas/Oklahoma across the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the
central Gulf Coast States Friday through Friday night.

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central
Gulf Coast States...
A positively tilted upper trough and associated mid/upper-level
speed max will advance eastward across the southern Plains and lower
MS Valley on Friday. A weak surface low should develop from the
southern OK/north TX border vicinity towards the ArkLaTex through
the day, while another surface low consolidates across the mid MS
Valley into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Rich low-level moisture
characterized by mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints will attempt to
advance northward in tandem with a warm front across east TX into
the lower MS Valley through Friday evening.

Clusters of convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across
parts of east TX/OK. This activity may continue to pose mainly a
threat for isolated large hail as it moves northeastward, given the
presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and strong
deep-layer shear. With time, the airmass across east TX into
LA/AR/MS should gradually destabilize with filtered daytime heating
and low-level moistening occurring. Strengthening low-level warm
advection and large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough
should encourage the development of additional convection
along/south of the warm front through Friday afternoon. With
sufficient low-level shear to support updraft rotation, any
supercell that develops in this regime could produce a tornado. But,
convective mode will likely tend to become messy rather quickly, as
thunderstorm mergers result in multiple clusters capable of
producing damaging winds.

A somewhat separate area of severe-hail potential should also exist
across parts of eastern OK into AR Friday afternoon along and
southeast of a cold front. This region will be in somewhat closer
proximity to colder temperatures aloft with the upper trough, and
steeper mid-level lapse rates. Assuming sufficient destabilization
can occur across this region, ample effective bulk shear (around
45-55 kt) will easily support supercells with an associated threat
for large hail and occasional damaging winds. The Slight Risk has
been expanded a bit northward in AR and westward in TX/OK to account
for this potential.

The threat for tornadoes and damaging winds should continue into
Friday evening and overnight/early Saturday morning across parts of
MS into AL, as enhanced shear with a southerly low-level jet will
likely persist across these areas. There is still some uncertainty
with the northern extent of surface-based severe thunderstorm
potential here, as convection that develops during the day across
LA/MS may slow the northward advance of greater low-level moisture.
Still, the 00Z NAM and 03Z RAP show some chance for weak, but
sufficient, instability late Friday/early Saturday across central
MS/AL. The Slight Risk has accordingly been expanded northward to
account for this potential. There was not enough confidence in a
more focused corridor of tornado risk to include greater severe
probabilities at this time.

..Gleason.. 03/07/2024

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