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SPC Mar 7, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z


Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, large hail, and
damaging winds are expected to spread eastward from east
Texas/Oklahoma across the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the
central Gulf Coast States Friday through Friday night.

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central
Gulf Coast States...
A positively tilted upper trough and associated mid/upper-level
speed max will advance eastward across the southern Plains and lower
MS Valley on Friday. A weak surface low should develop from the
southern OK/north TX border vicinity towards the ArkLaTex through
the day, while another surface low consolidates across the mid MS
Valley into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Rich low-level moisture
characterized by mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints will attempt to
advance northward in tandem with a warm front across east TX into
the lower MS Valley through Friday evening.

Clusters of convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across
parts of east TX/OK. This activity may continue to pose mainly a
threat for isolated large hail as it moves northeastward, given the
presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and strong
deep-layer shear. With time, the airmass across east TX into
LA/AR/MS should gradually destabilize with filtered daytime heating
and low-level moistening occurring. Strengthening low-level warm
advection and large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough
should encourage the development of additional convection
along/south of the warm front through Friday afternoon. With
sufficient low-level shear to support updraft rotation, any
supercell that develops in this regime could produce a tornado. But,
convective mode will likely tend to become messy rather quickly, as
thunderstorm mergers result in multiple clusters capable of
producing damaging winds.

A somewhat separate area of severe-hail potential should also exist
across parts of eastern OK into AR Friday afternoon along and
southeast of a cold front. This region will be in somewhat closer
proximity to colder temperatures aloft with the upper trough, and
steeper mid-level lapse rates. Assuming sufficient destabilization
can occur across this region, ample effective bulk shear (around
45-55 kt) will easily support supercells with an associated threat
for large hail and occasional damaging winds. The Slight Risk has
been expanded a bit northward in AR and westward in TX/OK to account
for this potential.

The threat for tornadoes and damaging winds should continue into
Friday evening and overnight/early Saturday morning across parts of
MS into AL, as enhanced shear with a southerly low-level jet will
likely persist across these areas. There is still some uncertainty
with the northern extent of surface-based severe thunderstorm
potential here, as convection that develops during the day across
LA/MS may slow the northward advance of greater low-level moisture.
Still, the 00Z NAM and 03Z RAP show some chance for weak, but
sufficient, instability late Friday/early Saturday across central
MS/AL. The Slight Risk has accordingly been expanded northward to
account for this potential. There was not enough confidence in a
more focused corridor of tornado risk to include greater severe
probabilities at this time.

..Gleason.. 03/07/2024

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