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SPC Mar 7, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook


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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHICS ERRORS

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the southern Plains
this afternoon into tonight.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough is deepening across the Four Corners region today,
with fast mid/high level flow extending across northern Mexico into
TX.  Beneath this fast zonal flow regime, southerly low-level winds
are helping to advect/maintain upper 50s and 60s dewpoints over much
of TX and southern OK.  Widespread cloud cover this morning will
continue to suppress strong heating except across western OK and
west-central TX where a dryline will develop.  This will lead to
multiple mesoscale areas of concern for strong/severe thunderstorm
development this afternoon and evening.

...Central TX...
An area of residual precipitation is affecting north-central TX. 
The outflow boundary along the southern edge of this convection will
likely become the focus for intensifying storms later today.  Strong
flow aloft will promote supercell structures, with very large hail
possible in the initial activity.  Storms that can maintain discrete
nature may also pose some tornado risk this evening as southerly
low-level winds and shear increase.  By late evening, remaining
storms may track eastward across the SLGT risk area with a threat of
damaging wind gusts.

...Western/Central OK...
Isolated supercell storms are expected to form along the diffuse
dryline over western OK and western north TX.  This activity may
produce very large hail initially, but an evolution to more linear
structures is expected during the early evening, with hail and
damaging winds possible.

...Southeast KS/Southwest MO...
Dense cloud cover over this region is expected to erode by mid
afternoon, allowing some daytime heating and destabilization along a
surface boundary extending across eastern KS into western MO.  This
zone will likely be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
 Despite rather weak instability, shear profiles would support
supercell structures capable of all severe hazards for several hours
through early evening.

..Hart.. 03/07/2024

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