Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted March 7 Administrators Share Posted March 7 SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHICS ERRORS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is deepening across the Four Corners region today, with fast mid/high level flow extending across northern Mexico into TX. Beneath this fast zonal flow regime, southerly low-level winds are helping to advect/maintain upper 50s and 60s dewpoints over much of TX and southern OK. Widespread cloud cover this morning will continue to suppress strong heating except across western OK and west-central TX where a dryline will develop. This will lead to multiple mesoscale areas of concern for strong/severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Central TX... An area of residual precipitation is affecting north-central TX. The outflow boundary along the southern edge of this convection will likely become the focus for intensifying storms later today. Strong flow aloft will promote supercell structures, with very large hail possible in the initial activity. Storms that can maintain discrete nature may also pose some tornado risk this evening as southerly low-level winds and shear increase. By late evening, remaining storms may track eastward across the SLGT risk area with a threat of damaging wind gusts. ...Western/Central OK... Isolated supercell storms are expected to form along the diffuse dryline over western OK and western north TX. This activity may produce very large hail initially, but an evolution to more linear structures is expected during the early evening, with hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southeast KS/Southwest MO... Dense cloud cover over this region is expected to erode by mid afternoon, allowing some daytime heating and destabilization along a surface boundary extending across eastern KS into western MO. This zone will likely be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Despite rather weak instability, shear profiles would support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards for several hours through early evening. ..Hart.. 03/07/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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