Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted March 7 Administrators Share Posted March 7 SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OK AND EAST TX TO SOUTH AL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are expected from parts of east Texas/Oklahoma across the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast States, on Friday afternoon into Friday night. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will shift east from the Southwest to the South-Central States with a pair of embedded shortwave impulses. Fast mid-level southwesterlies, in excess of 80 kts at 500 mb, will shift from south TX to the Ark-La-Miss by 12Z Saturday. A modest surface cyclone should shift from north TX towards the TN Valley. ...South-Central to Southeast States... Two potential mesoscale corridors of concern remain evident with a probable bimodal distribution to the overall severe threat, encompassed at this time with a relatively broad cat 2-SLGT risk. Clusters of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday across parts of central/eastern OK/TX into the Ark-La-Miss. This activity may continue to pose mainly a threat for isolated severe hail as it moves east-northeast, given the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. The southern bounds of this convection should effectively suppress the northern extent of appreciable surface-based destabilization into the Mid-South region. In addition, the low-level warm theta-e advection regime will persist through the diurnal heating cycle, yielding convection persisting across MS into AL into the afternoon, further limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front. Afternoon to evening thunderstorm development should be focused within two regimes. One may evolve in the Ark-La-Tex to Ark-La-Miss vicinity where large-scale ascent is focused ahead of the surface cyclone and attendant mid-level shortwave impulse. While low-level shear, outside of the composite warm front/remnant outflow boundary, should be modest, elongated and nearly straight-line hodographs will favor potential for a couple, long-track splitting supercells. With steep mid-level lapse rates impinging from the west, the setup may be favorable for a mesoscale corridor of enhanced large hail potential. For this cycle, have added a sig severe hail area. Farther east-southeast towards the central Gulf Coast, low-level shear will be stronger within the warm conveyor, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. With sufficient low-level shear to support updraft rotation, any supercell that develops in this regime could produce a tornado. Convective mode will likely tend to become messy rather quickly, as thunderstorm mergers result in multiple clusters capable of producing damaging winds. Uncertainty over timing of warm-sector surface-based storms further limits confidence in highlighting a mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential. Still, at least a low-probability threat for tornadoes and damaging winds should persist into Friday night across parts of MS/AL, perhaps as far east as GA late. ..Grams.. 03/07/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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