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Mesoscale Discussion 0198
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024

Areas affected...Central and western Oklahoma into northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 071930Z - 072130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated in the coming
hours. These storms will initially pose a large hail threat before
transitioning to primarily a severe wind threat during the evening
hours. Watch issuance is probable.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations over the past few hours have shown
gradual moisture return into western OK ahead of a sharpening
dryline/surface trough. Although this moisture is somewhat meager
(low to mid 50 dewpoints), steep mid-level lapse rates continue to
overspread the region amid a west/southwesterly mid-level flow
regime. While MLCAPE remains very minimal at the moment, continued
low-level moisture return should result in gradually improving
buoyancy through the late afternoon and evening hours. Regardless,
ascent associated with a subtle mid-level perturbation is
overspreading the TX Panhandle with high-based cumulus development
noted behind the dryline. This ascent is forecast to reach the warm
sector across western OK/northwest TX in the coming hours, and
recent HRRR/WOFS runs suggest initiation is likely during the 21-23
UTC period. Although convection may initially be anemic owing to the
modest buoyancy, the severe threat should steadily increase heading
into the evening hours with initially discrete cells posing a large
hail risk across northwest TX/western OK before upscale growth
favors an increasing wind threat further east into central OK. Watch
issuance is probable in the coming hours as sufficient buoyancy
becomes established to support severe convection.

..Moore/Hart.. 03/07/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   34180013 34789986 35689964 36419931 36759878 36869847
            36809814 36609783 36379758 36099737 35719730 35379741
            35009772 34559806 33909871 33629900 33499931 33579970
            33619988 33780017 34180013 

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