Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted March 7 Administrators Share Posted March 7 MD 0198 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 0198 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Areas affected...Central and western Oklahoma into northwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 071930Z - 072130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated in the coming hours. These storms will initially pose a large hail threat before transitioning to primarily a severe wind threat during the evening hours. Watch issuance is probable. DISCUSSION...Surface observations over the past few hours have shown gradual moisture return into western OK ahead of a sharpening dryline/surface trough. Although this moisture is somewhat meager (low to mid 50 dewpoints), steep mid-level lapse rates continue to overspread the region amid a west/southwesterly mid-level flow regime. While MLCAPE remains very minimal at the moment, continued low-level moisture return should result in gradually improving buoyancy through the late afternoon and evening hours. Regardless, ascent associated with a subtle mid-level perturbation is overspreading the TX Panhandle with high-based cumulus development noted behind the dryline. This ascent is forecast to reach the warm sector across western OK/northwest TX in the coming hours, and recent HRRR/WOFS runs suggest initiation is likely during the 21-23 UTC period. Although convection may initially be anemic owing to the modest buoyancy, the severe threat should steadily increase heading into the evening hours with initially discrete cells posing a large hail risk across northwest TX/western OK before upscale growth favors an increasing wind threat further east into central OK. Watch issuance is probable in the coming hours as sufficient buoyancy becomes established to support severe convection. ..Moore/Hart.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB... LAT...LON 34180013 34789986 35689964 36419931 36759878 36869847 36809814 36609783 36379758 36099737 35719730 35379741 35009772 34559806 33909871 33629900 33499931 33579970 33619988 33780017 34180013 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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