Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted March 7 Administrators Share Posted March 7 MD 0197 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS Mesoscale Discussion 0197 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Areas affected...North central Oklahoma to southeast Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 071927Z - 072200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected across north-central Oklahoma and southeast Kansas in the coming hours. These storms will likely pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. Trends are being monitored for a possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Over the past several hours, gradually clearing skies across north-central OK and south-central KS have allowed temperatures to warm into the mid 60s to low 70s. Although diurnal mixing has scoured moisture to the south of the synoptic frontal zone (dewpoints have fallen into the mid to upper 40s), dewpoints remain in the mid 50s along the surface warm front and to the north of a differential heating/outflow boundary draped across northern OK. With steep mid-level lapse rates overspreading the region, MLCAPE is gradually increasing with further improvement possible amid a subtle influx of low-level moisture from northeast OK within the southeasterly flow regime. Thunderstorm initiation is probable in the coming hours in the vicinity of the surface low and/or along the differential heating boundary as ascent associated with a subtle mid-level perturbation overspreads the region (denoted by a cirrus plume currently over the TX Panhandle). Latest HRRR/WOFS guidance suggests this should occur during the 21-23 UTC time frame. Wind profiles will be favorable for supercells, and enhanced low-level helicity between the differential heating boundary and warm front may support a locally higher tornado threat across northern OK/south-central KS. Further downstream into southeast KS, the gradual erosion of the stratiform rain/cloud field casts uncertainty on destabilization, but a few robust storms will likely persist and pose a hail/wind threat this evening. Trends will continue to be monitored for watch issuance. ..Moore/Hart.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 36499692 36689742 36789777 36839802 37119812 37539782 38059705 38309623 38469552 38439498 38099470 37759464 37309480 36949538 36669625 36499692 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.