Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted March 8 Administrators Share Posted March 8 SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may continue to impact portions of the southern Great Plains tonight, posing primarily a risk for severe hail and locally strong gusts. ...01Z Update... Cold air continues to nose southward through the high plains, and may advance through much of the Texas South Plains by late tonight, while advancing more slowly southeastward across the Upper Midwest, and middle into lower Missouri Valley. A weak wave has evolved along the front and is forecast to migrate from southeastern Kansas into the lower Missouri Valley overnight, but with little further development. Otherwise, generally broad, weak surface troughing likely will slowly shift eastward across the southern Great Plains toward the lower Mississippi Valley. Approaching large-scale mid-level troughing remains largely west of the southern Rockies, with the lead of two primary embedded short wave perturbations still progressing across Arizona and not likely to impact the southern Great Plains until late tonight. However, the leading edge of relative cool air in mid/upper levels has contributed to a narrow corridor of modest destabilization near/east of the Texas South Plains into southwestern through north central Oklahoma. This is near the northwestern periphery of broad mid/upper subtropical ridging still overspreading the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley. Residual warm layers aloft probably have continued to impact severe weather potential with ongoing convective development across much of central/north central Texas. This does not appear likely to change soon, but with increasing forcing associated with the approaching short wave impulse, various model output suggests increasing risk for strong/severe thunderstorm development could commence near/north of the Texas Edwards Plateau vicinity toward 07-08z, before spreading toward the Interstate 35 corridor through daybreak. Farther north, a couple of small supercell structures have developed near the frontal wave, while stronger convection has otherwise evolved into a narrow organizing line within the instability axis across southwestern into north central Oklahoma. It appears that this activity could remain fairly vigorous another couple of hours, posing a risk for mainly severe hail and locally strong surface gusts, before the instability wanes with continued boundary-layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 03/08/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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