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SPC Mar 8, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook


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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...SOUTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong thunderstorms may continue to impact portions of
the southern Great Plains tonight, posing primarily a risk for
severe hail and locally strong gusts.

...01Z Update...
Cold air continues to nose southward through the high plains, and
may advance through much of the Texas South Plains by late tonight,
while advancing more slowly southeastward across the Upper Midwest,
and middle into lower Missouri Valley.  A weak wave has evolved
along the front and is forecast to migrate from southeastern Kansas
into the lower Missouri Valley overnight, but with little further
development.  Otherwise, generally broad, weak surface troughing
likely will slowly shift eastward across the southern Great Plains
toward the lower Mississippi Valley.

Approaching large-scale mid-level troughing remains largely west of
the southern Rockies, with the lead of two primary embedded short
wave perturbations still progressing across Arizona and not likely
to impact the southern Great Plains until late tonight.  However,
the leading edge of relative cool air in mid/upper levels has
contributed to a narrow corridor of modest destabilization near/east
of the Texas South Plains into southwestern through north central
Oklahoma.  This is near the northwestern periphery of broad
mid/upper subtropical ridging still overspreading the southern Great
Plains into lower Mississippi Valley.

Residual warm layers aloft probably have continued to impact severe
weather potential with ongoing convective development across much of
central/north central Texas.  This does not appear likely to change
soon, but with increasing forcing associated with the approaching
short wave impulse, various model output suggests increasing risk
for strong/severe thunderstorm development could commence near/north
of the Texas Edwards Plateau vicinity toward 07-08z, before
spreading toward the Interstate 35 corridor through daybreak.

Farther north, a couple of small supercell structures have developed
near the frontal wave, while stronger convection has otherwise
evolved into a narrow organizing line within the instability axis
across southwestern into north central Oklahoma.  It appears that
this activity could remain fairly vigorous another couple of hours,
posing a risk for mainly severe hail and locally strong surface
gusts, before the instability wanes with continued boundary-layer
cooling.

..Kerr.. 03/08/2024

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