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SPC Mar 8, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook


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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few
tornadoes are expected Saturday across parts of the Southeast States
into the Carolinas.

...Southeast States/Carolinas...
A southern-stream upper-level trough over the Southwest Deserts will
reach the southern Plains/Ozarks by early Saturday, continuing
east-northeastward toward the southern Appalachians while gradually
phasing with a northern-stream trough over the Great Lakes and
Midwest. Primary surface cyclogenesis will occur over the Midwest,
but a secondary surface wave may evolve toward the southern
Appalachians as a cold front progresses eastward across the region.

At least mid 60s F surface dewpoints are forecast to advance quickly
northward across parts of Georgia and the Carolinas ahead of a cold
front. This will be in tandem with a northward-shifting warm front,
with its northward disposition likely impacted and subject to
uncertainty due to scattered early day convection. 

A few strong to severe storms could be ongoing Saturday morning
across parts of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into
southwest/south-central Georgia. Strong (40-50 kt)
south-southwesterly low-level flow should promote fast thunderstorm
motions, along with potential for severe/damaging downdraft winds as
well as a tornado risk with any clusters/bowing line segments that
can form/persist. It currently appears that the main diurnal severe
risk will focus across southern/eastern Georgia into
downstate/Piedmont portions of South Carolina in vicinity of the
warm front and evolving weak secondary surface wave. As the boundary
layer warms, this includes potential for supercells, given the
forecast strength of the low/mid-level flow and related
low/deep-layer shear. The damaging wind/tornado risk may persist
through the early evening hours in coastal areas.

..Guyer.. 03/08/2024

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