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Mesoscale Discussion 0204
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0920 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024

Areas affected...East TX into central/southern LA and southwest MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 081520Z - 081715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some uptick in severe potential is possible through the
morning. Hail, damaging gusts, and a tornado or two will become
possible with time. Eventual watch issuance is possible, though
timing is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Extensive convection is ongoing this morning from parts
of east TX into LA. A convectively reinforced surface front is
draped from northeast TX into northern LA and west-central MS. To
the south of the front, rich low-level moisture is in place, with
dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s F. Widespread cloudiness will
tend to limit diurnal heating through the morning, but modestly
steep midlevel lapse rates atop the moist boundary layer will
support MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg through the morning, helping to
maintain convection as it generally spreads eastward.

Deep-layer shear is favorable for organized convection across the
region, though storms may struggle to mature due to the lack of
stronger heating and generally weak low-level lapse rates.
Eventually, a couple supercells may become established from east TX
into LA and perhaps southwest MS, posing a threat of hail and
locally damaging gusts. If supercells can be sustained, a tornado or
two will also be possible, especially from central/eastern LA into
southwest MS, where some airmass recovery is expected in the wake of
an earlier storm cluster, and 0-1 km SRH of 100-200 m2/s2 is
expected to persist through much of the day. 

Watch issuance will become possible if the threat for maturing
supercells appears imminent, though the onset of a greater threat
and potential watch timing remain uncertain.

..Dean/Smith.. 03/08/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   30909589 32129550 32229415 32179289 31939137 31629037
            31359017 30689035 30469123 30259235 30169287 30359446
            30469504 30689574 30909589 

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