SPC Mar 8, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1023 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND
FAR WESTERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
A tornado threat exists this afternoon into tonight from parts of
Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama.  Large hail or strong-severe
gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of
north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma.

...Eastern TX/OK east across the northern Gulf Coast states...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale positively
tilted mid- to upper-level trough over the central states into the
Desert Southwest.  This large-scale trough will shift east during
the period and become increasingly phased with an amplifying
northern stream mid-level trough over the Upper Great Lakes.  A
couple of smaller-scale disturbances/speed maxima will move through
the base of the southern stream trough.  A lead convectively
augmented disturbance over northeast TX will move northeast into
AR/western TN during the day, while an upstream speed max moves from
northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley.  

In the low levels, an effective cold front will continue to push
east across east TX with a triple point expected to migrate east
along a warm front/baroclinically reinforced boundary across central
LA today.  Near and south of the warm front, a moist and moderately
unstable airmass will continue to slowly destabilize during the day
with upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints.  Sufficiently
large and elongated hodographs will favor storm organization with
the more persistent/stronger updrafts.  A mix of line segments and
cells in the warm sector traversing the warm frontal zone will
potentially pose a risk for damaging gusts/large hail, and a threat
for tornadoes with supercells.  Farther east, an initially drier and
stable airmass over the AL/FL Panhandle region will slowly
destabilize as southerly low-level flow advects richer moisture
north.  It is uncertain how much strong/severe storm activity will
occur during the day owing to the instability concerns, but severe
potential may gradually increase into the evening/overnight.  As a
500-mb speed max moves from the Rio Grande Valley into MS during the
night while intensifying to 90+ kt, there is some indication in
models of a rejuvenation of storm activity late tonight into the
early part of Saturday morning on the eastern portion of the Slight
Risk (i.e. AL vicinity).  If some of this activity can become
sustained and/or updrafts rooted in the boundary layer, a risk for
damaging gusts and a tornado or two may accompany the stronger
storms as 700-mb flow increases to 50 to 60-kt.  

...Northeast TX/southeast OK...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this
afternoon north of a surface low/frontal zone.  Relatively cold
500-mb temperatures (-18 to -20 deg C) may yield hail potential with
the stronger updrafts.  Where low-level lapse rates can steepen
sufficiently in wake of morning precip, a localized risk for a
strong gust may also develop.  This activity will likely diminish by
early evening.

..Smith/Lyons.. 03/08/2024

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