Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted March 8 Administrators Share Posted March 8 SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected Saturday across parts of the Southeast States into the Carolinas. ...Southeast... Fast southern stream southwesterly deep-layer flow will progress northeast across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Saturday, eventually merging with the northern stream upper trough digging across the Great Lakes/Midwest toward the Appalachians. Early in the day, a southwesterly low-level jet around 45-55 kt will be in place across northern FL/GA and the Carolinas, and shift east with time through late afternoon/early evening. At the surface, the main cyclone will be located over the Great Lakes and lift north/northeast across Quebec. However, most guidance depicts a weaker low/frontal wave from northern GA into the central Carolinas during the daytime hours. A cold front will be located across central AL to the mouth of the MS River at the start of the period. At the same time, a CAD wedge is forecast over the western Carolinas into northern GA while a warm front stretches from central GA into southern SC. Strong warm advection will allow for some erosion of the cold air damming into the central Carolinas during the day, with mid 60s F surface dewpoints across spreading into central GA, portions of the SC Mid and Lowlands and eastern NC ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Warm advection atop the area of cold air damming will result in widespread cloudiness, showers and isolated thunderstorms across northern GA into Upstate SC Saturday morning. Convection will remain elevated. However, strong vertical shear and sufficient elevated instability amid modest midlevel lapse rates could still support strong gusts and perhaps small hail. Across the warm sector from northern FL into central/southern GA and parts of SC into far southeast NC, severe potential will be greater. While vertical shear will support supercells, there is some concern regarding storm coverage from norther FL into GA as most forecast guidance depicts a dryslot quickly overspreading the region ahead of the cold front. This is evident in forecast soundings showing drying around 700 mb and increasing inhibition in the 850-700 mb layer. This could limit longevity of stronger updrafts despite MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg, midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km and favorable vertical shear. Nevertheless, any sustained supercells will have an attendant risk of damaging gusts and tornadoes, along with isolated hail. Confidence is higher in isolated to widely scattered supercells across parts of the SC Mid and Lowlands and far southeast NC near and south of the sharp warm front. Midlevel drying is not expected to be as great across this area, with little inhibition apparent in forecast soundings by early afternoon. Given proximity to the surface warm front and the low-level get spreading over this area, low-level SRH will be maximized. Supercells producing damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible through late afternoon. With northward extent across NC, overall thermodynamic environment will become less favorable. However, strong deep-layer flow could still support some organized storm structures and isolated strong gusts into the evening hours. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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