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SPC Mar 8, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook


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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few
tornadoes are expected Saturday across parts of the Southeast States
into the Carolinas.

...Southeast...

Fast southern stream southwesterly deep-layer flow will progress
northeast across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Saturday,
eventually merging with the northern stream upper trough digging
across the Great Lakes/Midwest toward the Appalachians. Early in the
day, a southwesterly low-level jet around 45-55 kt will be in place
across northern FL/GA and the Carolinas, and shift east with time
through late afternoon/early evening. 

At the surface, the main cyclone will be located over the Great
Lakes and lift north/northeast across Quebec. However, most guidance
depicts a weaker low/frontal wave from northern GA into the central
Carolinas during the daytime hours. A cold front will be located
across central AL to the mouth of the MS River at the start of the
period. At the same time, a CAD wedge is forecast over the western
Carolinas into northern GA while a warm front stretches from central
GA into southern SC. Strong warm advection will allow for some
erosion of the cold air damming into the central Carolinas during
the day, with mid 60s F surface dewpoints across spreading into
central GA, portions of the SC Mid and Lowlands and eastern NC ahead
of the eastward-advancing cold front. 

Warm advection atop the area of cold air damming will result in
widespread cloudiness, showers and isolated thunderstorms across
northern GA into Upstate SC Saturday morning. Convection will remain
elevated. However, strong vertical shear and sufficient elevated
instability amid modest midlevel lapse rates could still support
strong gusts and perhaps small hail.

Across the warm sector from northern FL into central/southern GA and
parts of SC into far southeast NC, severe potential will be greater.
While vertical shear will support supercells, there is some concern
regarding storm coverage from norther FL into GA as most forecast
guidance depicts a dryslot quickly overspreading the region ahead of
the cold front. This is evident in forecast soundings showing drying
around 700 mb and increasing inhibition in the 850-700 mb layer.
This could limit longevity of stronger updrafts despite MLCAPE
around 1000-1500 J/kg, midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km and
favorable vertical shear. Nevertheless, any sustained supercells
will have an attendant risk of damaging gusts and tornadoes, along
with isolated hail.

Confidence is higher in isolated to widely scattered supercells
across parts of the SC Mid and Lowlands and far southeast NC near
and south of the sharp warm front. Midlevel drying is not expected
to be as great across this area, with little inhibition apparent in
forecast soundings by early afternoon. Given proximity to the
surface warm front and the low-level get spreading over this area,
low-level SRH will be maximized. Supercells producing damaging gusts
and a few tornadoes will be possible through late afternoon.

With northward extent across NC, overall thermodynamic environment
will become less favorable. However, strong deep-layer flow could
still support some organized storm structures and isolated strong
gusts into the evening hours.

..Leitman.. 03/08/2024

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