Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted March 8 Administrators Share Posted March 8 MD 0205 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST Mesoscale Discussion 0205 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Areas affected...parts of the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 081849Z - 082045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two should slowly increase through the afternoon. Confidence in storm evolution is low, but the increase in severe risk may warrant weather watch issuance. DISCUSSION...As of 1845 UTC, regional radar and satellite analysis showed a complex convective regime across parts of the lower MS valley and central Gulf Coast. A cluster of mostly elevated thunderstorms residing along a composite outflow/warm front across southern MS into southwest AL has shown occasional strengthening early this afternoon. A relatively broad warm sector to the south of the outflow has allowed for sporadic discrete thunderstorm initiation across southern LA within the last hour. With limited inhibition and 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE from the 18z LIX sounding/SPC mesoanalysis, thunderstorms could gradually intensify within the warm sector. Deep-layer shear of 50+ kt would support storm organization into a supercells or short linear segments capable of damaging gusts. Large low-level hodograph curvature, especially near the warm front/outflow farther east, may also support a risk for a tornado or two if more persistent supercells are able to organize. Confidence in overall convective evolution is low given relatively broad cloud cover from ongoing storms and poor mid-level lapse rates. Storms may take some time to organize and numerous storm interactions are expected within the weakly capped/forced air mass. Experimental WOFS guidance does show a gradual increase in severe probabilities with time, assuming the ongoing convection is able to sustain itself. Given the broadly favorable environment and potential for increasing severe risk, a weather watch is possible in the next 1-2 hours. ..Lyons/Smith.. 03/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 29259082 29639250 29749312 29959324 30899232 31349178 31639024 31788928 31988846 31928826 31698788 30968777 30678781 30408787 30268790 30168835 29668942 29378997 29259068 29259082 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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