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SPC Mar 9, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook


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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN
GEORGIA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...AND FROM CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts are
possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States.

...GA/north FL...
Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented
broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL
Panhandle into southeast GA.  A moist/unstable airmass south of the
thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly
flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic
bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or
brief tornado.  As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot
towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through
southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening.  For
short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211
across southern GA/northern portions of FL.

...Carolinas...
The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band
--currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish
as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later
today.  Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s
across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into
southern NC.  Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor
storm organization.  Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of
buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud
cover/precip.  Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg
MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into
southern NC.  The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will
occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through
the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states.  Models
continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon,
but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing
during peak heating ahead of a cold front.  Due to the possibility
for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a
categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region.  This activity
will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes.

..Smith/Leitman.. 03/09/2024

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