Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted March 9 Administrators Share Posted March 9 SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...AND FROM CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ...Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. ..Smith/Leitman.. 03/09/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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