Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted March 10 Administrators Share Posted March 10 SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the south-central Plains and Ozarks on Tuesday. ...South-central Plains to Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley... A complex forecast scenario exists on Tuesday attributable to limited initial moisture return, uncertainties regarding mid-level capping, as well as Day 3-typical guidance variability regarding mass fields and thermodynamic details. Current bottom-line assessment is that a few strong to severe thunderstorms could occur mainly across parts of eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and western Missouri/northwest Arkansas Tuesday afternoon and evening. Lee-side cyclogenesis will become increasingly prevalent across the central Plains on Tuesday, while a low-amplitude shortwave trough progresses eastward across the south-central Plains. Low-level moisture will occur during the day, but surface dewpoints should still generally be limited to the upper 40s/lower 50s F to the east of the Oklahoma/north Texas dryline, and the southeast of a front across eastern Kansas and the nearby Missouri Valley. While early-season moisture content will be limited, a few surface-based thunderstorms may develop near the dryline/triple-point vicinity within a marginally unstable environment, with a slightly higher potential for increasingly elevated thunderstorm development Tuesday night including areas from northeast Oklahoma into Missouri. Marginal buoyancy and steepening mid-level lapse rates, in the presence of 40+ kt westerlies, could yield a few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds. ..Guyer.. 03/10/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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