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SPC Mar 10, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z


A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the
south-central Plains and Ozarks on Tuesday.

...South-central Plains to Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley...
A complex forecast scenario exists on Tuesday attributable to
limited initial moisture return, uncertainties regarding mid-level
capping, as well as Day 3-typical guidance variability regarding
mass fields and thermodynamic details. Current bottom-line
assessment is that a few strong to severe thunderstorms could occur
mainly across parts of eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and
western Missouri/northwest Arkansas Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Lee-side cyclogenesis will become increasingly prevalent across the
central Plains on Tuesday, while a low-amplitude shortwave trough
progresses eastward across the south-central Plains. Low-level
moisture will occur during the day, but surface dewpoints should
still generally be limited to the upper 40s/lower 50s F to the east
of the Oklahoma/north Texas dryline, and the southeast of a front
across eastern Kansas and the nearby Missouri Valley. While
early-season moisture content will be limited, a few surface-based
thunderstorms may develop near the dryline/triple-point vicinity
within a marginally unstable environment, with a slightly higher
potential for increasingly elevated thunderstorm development Tuesday
night including areas from northeast Oklahoma into Missouri.
Marginal buoyancy and steepening mid-level lapse rates, in the
presence of 40+ kt westerlies, could yield a few strong to severe
thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds.

..Guyer.. 03/10/2024

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