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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z


A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday with
westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee
troughing across the Plains. Critical fire weather conditions are
expected across northeastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas
and Oklahoma Panhandles and southwestern Kansas. In these regions,
afternoon relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap
with sustained southwest winds at 15-20 mph. Early spring green up
of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing
temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month
across these regions. Given confidence in status of fuels and
meteorological conditions, the 70 percent D3 probabilities were
maintained with a D2 Critical delineation. 

Similar fuel conditions extend into the Elevated risk areas across 
east-central/south-central New Mexico and southwestern Texas.
Ensemble probabilities are less supportive of sustained Critical
conditions with more marginal winds across these regions. As such,
D3 40 percent probabilities were kept as an Elevated delineation.
Trends will continue to be monitored. 

Elevated fire weather conditions will extend into portions of
southwestern and south-central Kansas. Guidance has more spread on
afternoon relative humidity in these regions with ensemble guidance
lending higher probabilities to Elevated over Critical conditions.
As such, this area was also maintained in an Elevated delineation
with this outlook.

..Thornton.. 03/10/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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