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Mesoscale Discussion 0215
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024

Areas affected...Northeast Ohio into western/central Pennsylvania
and western New York

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 101613Z - 102015Z

SUMMARY...Snow squall potential will persist into the early
afternoon hours across northeast Ohio into western/central
Pennsylvania, and western New York.

DISCUSSION...Over the past few hours, a combination of broken cloud
cover and low/mid-level cold air advection over the upper OH river
valley and lower Great Lakes region has allowed for low-level lapse
rates to steepen to 7-8 C/km. These steep lapse rates are supporting
shallow convection across central to western PA with a history of
producing snow squall conditions (reduced visibility to 0.25 mile at
times with moderate snowfall rates and wind gusts upwards of 25-30
mph). The expectation is for this thermodynamic regime to largely
remain in place through at least early afternoon before cold air
advection in the 925-850 mb layer wanes later in the day. As
low/mid-level destabilization continues for the next few hours,
SBCAPE values should approach 250 J/kg, resulting in an
intensification of precipitation/snowfall rates within convective
snow showers. Recent high-res guidance suggests additional snow
bands will propagate off of Lake Erie through early afternoon into
northeast OH, PA, and western NY. One such band is evident in
regional reflectivity across far western NY, lending confidence in
this overall scenario. Consequently, the potential for snow squalls
should continue for the next several hours.

..Moore.. 03/10/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   41328191 41648123 42557910 42757886 43057888 43307869
            43187713 42927671 42457659 41767653 41117684 40297758
            39927815 39757875 39727937 39747984 40028047 40508133
            40828171 41328191 

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