SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN WYOMING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE
TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS...

Made significant expansion to the Elevated area to include most of
Kansas, western Iowa, eastern Nebraska, southern South Dakota and
eastern Wyoming. Within this Elevated area a Critical delineation
has been added for eastern Wyoming and the Critical area in the High
Plains has been expanded into north-central Kansas. 

The forecast remains on track for portions of the southern High
Plains. However, 12Z forecast guidance shows dry and windy
conditions extending across much of the central Plains. Critical
conditions are likely in central Kansas where only minimal
precipitation has fallen in the past week. Farther east relative
humidity will not be as low given recent rainfall, but sustained
winds near or above critical strength are still expected. Therefore,
despite the recent rainfall, have expanded the Elevated to these
areas to cover the threat for large fires, especially where grasses
remain dormant/freeze-cured. 

Snowcover remains across northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska,
but outside of these areas there will be some large fire threat
given the meteorological conditions. Have drawn the Elevated
delineation to include areas which are free of snowcover as of this
afternoon, where fine fuels have had some time to dry by tomorrow
afternoon. 

Finally, added a critical area for east-central Wyoming. Downslope
flow and a deeply mixed airmass will support sustained surface winds
of 20 to 25 mph across eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle
and far southwest South Dakota. This region has seen well below
normal precipitation in the past month with minimal precipitation in
the past 2 weeks. Therefore, fine fuels will be sufficiently dry to
carry fire.

..Bentley.. 03/10/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024/

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday with
westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee
troughing across the Plains. Critical fire weather conditions are
expected across northeastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas
and Oklahoma Panhandles and southwestern Kansas. In these regions,
afternoon relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap
with sustained southwest winds at 15-20 mph. Early spring green up
of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing
temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month
across these regions. Given confidence in status of fuels and
meteorological conditions, the 70 percent D3 probabilities were
maintained with a D2 Critical delineation. 

Similar fuel conditions extend into the Elevated risk areas across 
east-central/south-central New Mexico and southwestern Texas.
Ensemble probabilities are less supportive of sustained Critical
conditions with more marginal winds across these regions. As such,
D3 40 percent probabilities were kept as an Elevated delineation.
Trends will continue to be monitored. 

Elevated fire weather conditions will extend into portions of
southwestern and south-central Kansas. Guidance has more spread on
afternoon relative humidity in these regions with ensemble guidance
lending higher probabilities to Elevated over Critical conditions.
As such, this area was also maintained in an Elevated delineation
with this outlook.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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