Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted March 11 Administrators Share Posted March 11 SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN KS AND THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from central/eastern Oklahoma into eastern KS and the Lower Missouri Valley on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern early Wednesday will likely feature western CONUS troughing transitioning to largely zonal flow across the eastern CONUS. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within the larger western CONUS troughing, including one which may eject out of the central Plains and another that progresses through its western periphery. Evolution of the second shortwave, which is expected to mature into a closed low over southern NV/northwest AZ by early Thursday morning, will lead to a deepening of the parent upper troughing across the western CONUS and an amplifying the overall upper pattern. At the surface, a low is forecast to begin the period near the CO/OK/KS border intersection before shifting eastward throughout the day. A dryline will extend southward from this low, with some eastward progression of this feature expected as well. Warm sector east of this dryline in OK will likely be characterized by upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints, with higher dewpoints south in TX and slightly lower dewpoints north into KS. Given the presence of cool mid-level temperatures, and associated steep mid-level lapse rates, these dewpoints are expected to be sufficient for airmass destabilization ahead of the dryline across central/eastern OK where afternoon temperatures will likely be in the upper 70s. If convection initiation is realized, the overall environment should support discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards. However, several uncertainties remain within the forecast including the eastern extent of the dryline, strength of the capping (i.e. mid-level temperatures), and quality of the low-level moisture return. These factors preclude introducing higher probabilities with this outlook, but higher probabilities could be needed later over portions of the southern Plains once these details become more predictable. Elevated thunderstorms are possible later in the evening from eastern KS into the Lower MO Valley as the low-level jet strengthens. Buoyancy will remain modest, but moderate deep-layer vertical shear and cold mid-level temperatures could result in some strong to severe storms capable of hail. ..Mosier.. 03/11/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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