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SPC Mar 11, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook


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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN KS AND THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from central/eastern Oklahoma into
eastern KS and the Lower Missouri Valley on Wednesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper pattern early Wednesday will likely feature western CONUS
troughing transitioning to largely zonal flow across the eastern
CONUS. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within the larger
western CONUS troughing, including one which may eject out of the
central Plains and another that progresses through its western
periphery. Evolution of the second shortwave, which is expected to
mature into a closed low over southern NV/northwest AZ by early
Thursday morning, will lead to a deepening of the parent upper
troughing across the western CONUS and an amplifying the overall
upper pattern.

At the surface, a low is forecast to begin the period near the
CO/OK/KS border intersection before shifting eastward throughout the
day. A dryline will extend southward from this low, with some
eastward progression of this feature expected as well. Warm sector
east of this dryline in OK will likely be characterized by upper
50s/low 60s dewpoints, with higher dewpoints south in TX and
slightly lower dewpoints north into KS. Given the presence of cool
mid-level temperatures, and associated steep mid-level lapse rates,
these dewpoints are expected to be sufficient for airmass
destabilization ahead of the dryline across central/eastern OK where
afternoon temperatures will likely be in the upper 70s. 

If convection initiation is realized, the overall environment should
support discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards. However,
several uncertainties remain within the forecast including the
eastern extent of the dryline, strength of the capping (i.e.
mid-level temperatures), and quality of the low-level moisture
return. These factors preclude introducing higher probabilities with
this outlook, but higher probabilities could be needed later over
portions of the southern Plains once these details become more
predictable. 

Elevated thunderstorms are possible later in the evening from
eastern KS into the Lower MO Valley as the low-level jet
strengthens. Buoyancy will remain modest, but moderate deep-layer
vertical shear and cold mid-level temperatures could result in some
strong to severe storms capable of hail.

..Mosier.. 03/11/2024

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