Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted March 11 Administrators Share Posted March 11 Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a deep, positively tilted upper trough will extend over the western CONUS early Thursday. This upper troughing will be anchored by a closed low over the Lower CO River Valley, with moderate to strong mid-level flow extending from this low eastward/northeastward across the Southwest and central/southern Plains into the Mid MS Valley. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to progress northeastward within this belt of stronger flow. Timing of this shortwave varies within the guidance, but the general forecast evolution of an associated surface low moving northeastward just ahead of the low and attendant cold front sweeping southeastward across the central and southern Plains remains the same. A moderately moist and unstable airmass will precede this front, and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of it on D4/Thursday. Uncertainty exists regarding frontal timing and whether or not open warm-sector initiation in plausible. A likely forecast scenario is for late morning/early afternoon development near the triple point, with storms then continuing along the outflow across southeast OK and central/east TX. Moderate southwesterly flow aloft and moderate buoyancy will likely result in strong to severe thunderstorms. Large hail and damaging gusts currently appear to be the main severe hazards. This cold front is expected to continue eastward/southeastward across the TN Valley and Southeast on D5/Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible, but limited heating and scant buoyancy should keep the severe potential low. Greater buoyancy and shear are possible from the TX Hill Country into the TX Coastal Plains, supporting potential severe thunderstorms. However, uncertainty exists regarding frontal timing as well as location and coverage of early day precipitation, limiting overall forecast confidence. Some thunderstorms are possible across the southern Plains on D6/Saturday, but forecast confidence decreases after D5/Friday, with medium-range guidance varying considerably on the evolution of the western CONUS upper low. Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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