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SPC Mar 11, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook


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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a deep, positively
tilted upper trough will extend over the western CONUS early
Thursday. This upper troughing will be anchored by a closed low over
the Lower CO River Valley, with moderate to strong mid-level flow
extending from this low eastward/northeastward across the Southwest
and central/southern Plains into the Mid MS Valley. A low-amplitude
shortwave trough is forecast to progress northeastward within this
belt of stronger flow. Timing of this shortwave varies within the
guidance, but the general forecast evolution of an associated
surface low moving northeastward just ahead of the low and attendant
cold front sweeping southeastward across the central and southern
Plains remains the same. 

A moderately moist and unstable airmass will precede this front, and
thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of it on D4/Thursday.
Uncertainty exists regarding frontal timing and whether or not open
warm-sector initiation in plausible. A likely forecast scenario is
for late morning/early afternoon development near the triple point,
with storms then continuing along the outflow across southeast OK
and central/east TX. Moderate southwesterly flow aloft and moderate
buoyancy will likely result in strong to severe thunderstorms. Large
hail and damaging gusts currently appear to be the main severe
hazards. 

This cold front is expected to continue eastward/southeastward
across the TN Valley and Southeast on D5/Friday. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible, but limited heating and scant buoyancy
should keep the severe potential low. Greater buoyancy and shear are
possible from the TX Hill Country into the TX Coastal Plains,
supporting potential severe thunderstorms. However, uncertainty
exists regarding frontal timing as well as location and coverage of
early day precipitation, limiting overall forecast confidence.

Some thunderstorms are possible across the southern Plains on
D6/Saturday, but forecast confidence decreases after D5/Friday, with
medium-range guidance varying considerably on the evolution of the
western CONUS upper low.

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