Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted March 11 Administrators Posted March 11 SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Removed the Critical area from Far West Texas and vicinity. Forecast winds have trended down. This, combined with somewhat sparse fuels in the region, warranted a downgrade. Expanded the Elevated delineation into central and eastern Kansas. Elevated to briefly critical conditions are expected to the south of a weak surface low as it moves through northern Kansas. Critical conditions are likely, but are only expected to last 1 or 2 hours. In addition, there has been significant precipitation in this area within the last week which has somewhat muted fuel receptiveness. For these reasons, a Critical area is not needed, but an Elevated area seems warranted. ..Bentley.. 03/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A surface cyclone is expected to develop across the central High Plains Tuesday afternoon, with increasing south to southwesterly flow across much of the central and southern Plains. Gradual moisture return will begin across central Texas into central Oklahoma. Elevated to Critical fire weather is expected across portions of the southern High Plains behind a surface dryline located across west Texas/western Oklahoma. Westerly downslope flow will prevail behind the dryline, with Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas and northward into the Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma. Critical conditions are most likely across far southeastern New Mexico into western Texas from Dell Valley into the Guadelupe Mountains and Trans-Pecos region. In this region, deeply mixed profiles will support relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds at 20-25 mph amid ERCs nearing the 80th percentile. Outside of this region, relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will still be likely, but ensemble signal for sustained critical winds is low. Locally Critical fire weather conditions will be possible, with potential for further expansion of the Critical risk with subsequent updates. The Elevated risk was maintained with this outlook, with minor expansions into the Texas Panhandle/far western Oklahoma and further west into central New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article Quote
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