SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

Removed the Critical area from Far West Texas and vicinity. Forecast
winds have trended down. This, combined with somewhat sparse fuels
in the region, warranted a downgrade.

Expanded the Elevated delineation into central and eastern Kansas.
Elevated to briefly critical conditions are expected to the south of
a weak surface low as it moves through northern Kansas. Critical
conditions are likely, but are only expected to last 1 or 2 hours.
In addition, there has been significant precipitation in this area
within the last week which has somewhat muted fuel receptiveness.
For these reasons, a Critical area is not needed, but an Elevated
area seems warranted.

..Bentley.. 03/11/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024/

...Synopsis...
A surface cyclone is expected to develop across the central High
Plains Tuesday afternoon, with increasing south to southwesterly
flow across much of the central and southern Plains. Gradual
moisture return will begin across central Texas into central
Oklahoma.  Elevated to Critical fire weather is expected across
portions of the southern High Plains behind a surface dryline
located across west Texas/western Oklahoma.

Westerly downslope flow will prevail behind the dryline, with
Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions expected across
portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas and northward into
the Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma. Critical conditions
are most likely across far southeastern New Mexico into western
Texas from Dell Valley into the Guadelupe Mountains and Trans-Pecos
region. In this region, deeply mixed profiles will support
relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained
winds at 20-25 mph amid ERCs nearing the 80th percentile. Outside of
this region, relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will
still be likely, but ensemble signal for sustained critical winds is
low. Locally Critical fire weather conditions will be possible, with
potential for further expansion of the Critical risk with subsequent
updates. The Elevated risk was maintained with this outlook, with
minor expansions into the Texas Panhandle/far western Oklahoma and
further west into central New Mexico.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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