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SPC Apr 3, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z


Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts
will continue this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity,
and across central Florida.

Current outlook areas and reasoning remain valid for the remainder
of the afternoon, thus not requiring any major changes for this

The only adjustments have been to tweak areal delineations to
reflect current convective evolution, and to remove the 5% tornado
probability across Florida (reducing the probability to 2%, for
ongoing convection).

..Goss.. 04/03/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024/

...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon...
A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward
through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate
northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low
(GA/north FL to VA).  Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected
along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move
just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight.  Along and
southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected
from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for
additional thunderstorm development by midday.  The warm sector will
be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and
sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells
capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70
mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this

...North/central FL this afternoon...
A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread
southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 
50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the
warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the
upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F.  This
will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential
for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments,
and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations
and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. 
Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the
storms move from central toward south FL.

...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening...
A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the
Pacific Northwest coast.  East of the trough, a gradual increase in
midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening,
as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer
baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID.  Surface heating/mixing and
modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles
with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient
deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms.  The net result
should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated
strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail
(0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this

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