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SPC Apr 7, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook


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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms should develop from early
afternoon Monday through Tuesday morning across a large portion of
the southern Plains into the Mississippi Delta region. Large to very
large hail is the main threat, especially over northwest Texas,
though isolated tornadoes and severe wind gusts will also be
possible.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will deepen over the Desert Southwest, preceded
by multiple embedded perturbations which are poised to traverse the
southern Plains tomorrow/Monday. A broad belt of low-level moisture
return will become established over the southern Plains during this
period as colder mid-level temperatures overspread the south-central
U.S., supporting at least moderate instability by afternoon.
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms should occur across the southern
Plains. The southerly low-level jet beneath strong mid-level
westerlies will promote strong vertical wind shear over the warm
sector, that in tandem with moderate instability will support some
of the thunderstorms becoming strong to severe tomorrow afternoon
and evening, with all severe hazards possible.

...Southern Plains...
The first round of thunderstorms should initiate over portions of
central TX by afternoon along the warm front. At least mid 60s F
dewpoints, overspread by 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will boost
MLCAPE to 1500-2500 J/kg. 30+ kts of south-southeasterly flow
beneath 50+ kts of southwesterly 500 mb winds will support modestly
curved low-level hodographs with mid/upper-level elongation,
quantified by around 50 kts of effective bulk shear and at least 200
m2/s2 effective SRH. Multicells and supercells will form along the
warm front with large hail and a few tornadoes the main threat. A
few stones may exceed 2 inches in diameter.

Meanwhile, low-level moisture will also advect northwestward into
northwestern TX and extreme southwestern OK. Surface dewpoints
should reach into the 50s F, and will be overspread by 8+ C/km
mid-level lapse rates, supporting over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon
peak heating. Strong vertical wind shear will also be in place, with
elongated hodographs contributing to over 50 kts of effective bulk
shear. Multicells and supercells will be the dominant modes of
convection. The main threat will be large hail (multiple instances
of 2+ inch diameter hail will be possible). Damaging gusts will also
be possible and a tornado cannot be ruled out given modest low-level
hodograph curvature, though the tornado threat should be tempered by
limited low-level moisture. Later in the evening, storms should
merge into clusters and small bowing segments, where a few damaging
gusts will eventually become the main concern.

...Mississippi Delta Region...
As the warm front moves north through the day, low-level warm-air
and moisture advection will boost MUCAPE to over 1000 J/kg over
portions of central LA into western MS. Elevated convection should
develop during the afternoon in the warm-air advection regime, where
7 C/km mid-level lapse rates and elongated hodographs will encourage
multicell/supercell development. Large hail will be the main threat
with the more dominant elevated supercells.

..Squitieri.. 04/07/2024

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