Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted April 15 Administrators Share Posted April 15 SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and eject eastward over the Great Plains today and tonight. A lee low should rapidly deepen over central High Plains with surface pressure falls and the strong flow aloft bolstering strong surface winds over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels will allow for widespread critical and localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern and central High Plains... As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies late in the afternoon and evening. The rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low, falling to 10-15% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support ubiquitous high-end critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and evening hours. The most likely corridors for localized extreme conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS and the northwestern Panhandles, and across parts of the southwest TX. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and single digit RH is possible for a few hours late in the afternoon. Uncertainty on the duration of extreme conditions remains too large to introduce any Extremely Critical areas. Considerable uncertainty also exists on the positioning of the dryline and the amount of mid and high-level cloud cover. Will maintain a broader Elevated area to capture the potential for more brief fire-weather conditions should the dryline mix farther east. ...Missouri Valley... Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible in parts of northwestern Iowa into southeast South Dakota this afternoon. Dry air ahead of the warm front and gusty winds will increase prior to precipitation arriving during the evening/overnight. With these dry/windy conditions occurring primarily over marginally dry fuels and over a limited duration, the threat is likely to remain localized. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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