Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted April 15 Administrators Share Posted April 15 SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday afternoon to early evening across parts of the Lower to Central Ohio Valley into the Mid-South. ...Parts of the Midwest to Mid-South... Occluding surface cyclone in the northeast IA vicinity on Wednesday morning will further dampen as it tracks towards Lower MI. Despite weakening tropospheric flow fields, favorable low to deep-layer shear profiles should persist into early evening. The northeast lobe of the warm-moist sector emanating from the western Gulf should spread across at least the Lower OH Valley. While some low-level warm theta-e advection-driven convection may be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, overall signals have been for less convection impacting the buoyancy plume compared to prior forecasts. As such, potential for greater daytime destabilization is apparent, with a moderate MLCAPE field from 1000-2000 J/kg likely. Most guidance suggests early afternoon convective initiation will occur along the cold front trailing south-southwest from the occluding cyclone. A mix of all severe hazards appears possible with both supercells and multicell clusters. Greatest convective concentration is expected near/north of the Lower to Central Ohio Valley. The buoyancy plume should be more confined within this corridor and eventually pinch off as overturning occurs. With further diminishing of flow fields into the evening, the severe threat will wane after dusk. ..Grams.. 04/15/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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