Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted April 15 Administrators Share Posted April 15 Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Isolated to scattered large hail and isolated severe wind gusts are evident on D4/Thursday from the Ozark Plateau into central TX. Low probability severe may persist into D5-6, mainly across parts of TX, with severe potential appearing negligible around D7-8. A northern-stream mid/upper trough should shift east from the Northwest into the Upper Midwest on D4. A more piecemeal eastward evolution is progged into the weekend amid multiple embedded impulses. The southern stream is expected to remain relatively weak and quasi-zonal, although there are indications of lower-amplitude impulses migrating through the flow. The best potential for severe appears focused on D4. Both the 00Z NAM/ECMWF hint at elevated convection developing across the central Great Plains late D3 on Thursday morning within a strengthening low-level warm theta-e advection regime south of the trough shifting into the Upper Midwest. Robust diabatic heating is expected in the warm-moist sector over the southern Great Plains, with the largest buoyancy so far this week ahead of the dryline in TX. As surface ridging noses down the High Plains, a lee cyclone will be forced east-southeast into OK as a developing frontal wave. Above-average agreement exists across guidance with surface-based convective development along both the southwest/northeast-oriented baroclinic zone and dryline. Primary uncertainty with southern extent is the degree of deep-layer shear as wind profiles appear weak to modest over most of the larger buoyancy plume. Have delineated a 15 percent area where potential for a few supercells and multicell clusters is evident on Thursday afternoon, with an implied lower severe probability extending farther southwest through much of central TX. Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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