Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted April 16 Administrators Share Posted April 16 SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today, especially across northern Missouri, Iowa, and northwestern Illinois. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are expected. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks and Mid-South. ...Midwest/Middle Mississippi Valley... Regenerative scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to occur across western/northern Missouri into much of Iowa at late morning, originating with a warm sector that narrows with north-northwestward extent into southern Iowa and far east/northeast Nebraska in vicinity of the surface low. Even while warm-sector cloud breaks have been limited, steady early-spring heating and low-level moistening is occurring with surface dewpoints rising through the lower 60s F. This development coincides with an intense/cyclonically curved 90+ kt polar jet and a low-level jet that will remain diurnally strong (40+ kt). Modest cloud breaks aside, destabilization will be further aided by a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough/low. Scenario supports a risk for supercells especially across northern Missouri into southern/eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in hail production, with a few golf ball or 2+ inch diameter stones possible with the more robust cores. Tornadoes will also be a concern, as the enhanced boundary-layer flow and enlarged/curved hodographs associated with the low-level jet will aid in updraft rotation. The main tornado potential is still expected to be focused along/near the warm front in southern/eastern Iowa where the stronger low-level shear is forecast. A strong (EF2+) tornado is possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds are otherwise expected regionally. Farther south toward the Ozarks and Mid-South, a potential for at least isolated severe thunderstorms remains apparent into this evening, with a moist/confluent regime near/ahead of the eastward-advancing front. Mid-level lapse rates will remain limited. However, steady low-level moistening will tend to counteract a tendency for nocturnal boundary cooling, netting a scenario with limited warm-sector inhibition tonight, supporting the possibility of supercells capable of all severe hazards including a tornado risk, even if severe storms remain relatively isolated overall. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 04/16/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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