Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted April 25 Administrators Share Posted April 25 SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN KS AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST TX INTO CENTRAL OK... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter and a strong tornado or two will be possible this evening across western Kansas. Large hail, damaging winds to 70 mph and a few tornadoes will be possible tonight from northwest Texas into central Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Morning water vapor imagery shows a negatively-tilted shortwave trough rotating across UT/AZ, with an associated 70kt mid-level jet max moving into NM. This system will eject into the central/southern Plains this evening/tonight, resulting in multiple clusters of severe thunderstorm activity. ...Western KS... A quasi-stationary surface boundary extends from northwest CO into northwest KS. Visible imagery shows broken cloud cover across western KS this morning, with dewpoints in the low 60s to the south of the front. Strong heating will likely ensue through the afternoon, resulting in deepening mixing to the east of the dryline and eventual isolated thunderstorm development. CAM solutions differ significantly on coverage of convection, but it appears likely that at least isolated supercells will form along the dryline, capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes (possibly strong). The confidence of initiation is much higher along the warm front from northeast CO into northwest KS, and forecast soundings along this corridor show strong low-level vertical shear supporting supercell structures. It is uncertain how far north these storms can remain surface-based, but there is an apparent tornado risk (possibly strong) along the immediate boundary and a large hail risk for some distance northward. This activity will likely spread into south-central NE after dark. ...TX Panhandle/Western OK... As the primary upper trough ejects this evening, large-scale height falls and forcing will overspread the dryline across the OK/TX Panhandles. Forecast soundings show a persistent capping inversion along the dryline, and CAM guidance generally shows very isolated convective initiation. Any storm that forms will pose a risk of all severe hazards, including very large hail. Overnight, a strengthening low-level jet over west TX will likely lead to a large cluster of thunderstorm. These storms will track northeastward across northwest TX and into western/central OK in the pre-dawn hours. Large hail will be likely with these storms, but damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will also be a risk if a more organized linear MCS can evolve. ..Hart/Moore.. 04/25/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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