Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted April 26 Administrators Share Posted April 26 MD 0526 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA ...NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN IOWA. Mesoscale Discussion 0526 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Areas affected...parts of central and eastern Nebraska ...northeast Kansas into southwestern Iowa. Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 261721Z - 261815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storm development appears likely on the dryline within central and eastern Nebraska early this afternoon. Supercells with large to very large hail and tornadoes are possible. A Tornado Watch is likely needed. DISCUSSION...Rapid destabilization is ongoing within the dry slot ahead of an upper trough moving into the central Plains. Visible imagery shows towering cumulus deepening along the bent back dryline from near Kearney, NE to the KS border. A pocket of low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints has remained sheltered from deeper vertical mixing due to lingering clouds near the surface low. As cloud breaks enlarge with the advection of dry mid-level air, insolation will support the removal of remaining MLCINH through the early afternoon. Area model sounding show 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE with strongly veering wind profiles and 40-45 kt of effective shear. As large-scale ascent moves over early this afternoon, scattered supercell development is expected along the dryline. Hi-res guidance and observational trends are in good agreement that an arc of storms could develop as early as 18-19z and spread northeastward into east eastern NE and eventually western IA. With backed low-level flow near the low/warm front and strongly veering wind profiles overlapping with large low-level buoyancy, supercells appear likely to pose a risk for tornadoes (possibly significant) in addition to large to very large hail. The southern and eastern extent of the threat remains somewhat uncertain as cloud debris and outflow from the morning convection are still in place. Still, gradual destabilization is likely this afternoon as ascent and clearing arrive from the west. A tornado watch will likely be needed early this afternoon. ..Lyons/Hart.. 04/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 42649674 42299596 41909541 41399524 40729519 40129527 39949546 39889575 39859598 39829630 39859679 39889720 39979749 40089770 40329792 40639812 40869834 40979860 41019894 41179902 41629913 42149910 42239906 42579833 42739771 42749712 42649674 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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