Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted April 26 Administrators Share Posted April 26 SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHWEST MO/SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, isolated very large hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) and isolated wind damage will be possible, mainly this afternoon/evening from northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska into northwest Missouri and southwest Iowa. Occasional severe storms are expected farther south into Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. ...Mid MO Valley to TX through tonight... A complex surface pattern is evident this morning with a cyclone in northern KS, a trailing dryline/Pacific front into western OK, and the east edge of the warm sector demarcated by a warm front from eastern OK into eastern KS. An ongoing QLCS with occasional wind damage and tornado reports is moving across eastern OK near the warm front, with an area of rain-cooled/overturned in OK in the wake of these storms. Farther north, an undisturbed portion of the warm sector extends across central KS. The eastern OK convection will likely persist through the day toward western AR, with additional expansion of rain/thunderstorms farther northeast into southwest/central MO. The OK/AR portion of this convection will be the most likely to maintain access to the surface warm sector through the day, where a mix of bowing segments or embedded supercells will be possible with all hazards. The clouds/rain will slow the northeastward progress of the warm sector, and northward advection of the overturned airmass in OK will potentially impact the breadth and quality of the unstable warm sector this afternoon. Assuming sufficient recovery during the day, there will be a window of opportunity for tornadic supercells along the dryline this afternoon/evening starting in northeast KS/southeast NE and spreading into northwest MO/southwest IA. MLCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg, boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s, and sufficiently long hodographs with low-level hodograph curvature (effective bulk shear in excess of 50 kt, and effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2) suggest the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes with any persistent, semi-discrete supercells. Isolated very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) will also be possible, while the potential for a few damaging gusts will accompany any upscale growth into line segments this evening. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible today farther southwest into TX, in association with weak height falls on the southern fringe of the ejecting midlevel trough. The 12z FWD sounding showed only a weak cap, so the SLGT has been expanded some to the southwest to account for large hail/wind damage potential today. Storms will likely weaken by this evening as weak height rises commence and the remnant dryline begins to retreat to the west. ..Thompson/Guyer.. 04/26/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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