SPC Apr 29, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the
central and southern Plains on Wednesday. A few tornadoes will be
possible (including potential for a strong tornado), in addition to
large to very large hail and damaging winds.

...Synopsis...
In the wake of a strong shortwave trough moving toward the upper
Great Lakes, a broad upper trough is forecast to move slowly
eastward toward the central CONUS on Wednesday. A surface low is
forecast to deepen across the south-central High Plains, with rich
low-level moisture expected to stream northward across the warm
sector. A dryline will extend south of the low during the afternoon,
while a warm front will move northward toward the KS/NE border.
Farther south, a secondary mid/upper-level jet maximum may
overspread parts of west/southwest TX. 

...Parts of the central/southern Plains...
A favorable conditional environment for severe thunderstorms will
likely develop across parts of the warm sector on Wednesday, and
supercells capable of all severe hazards will be possible. Storm
coverage and evolution remain uncertain, however.

Steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich low-level moisture (with
dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F) will support strong
destabilization along/east of the dryline and south of the warm
front by Wednesday afternoon. Mid/upper-level flow will remain
relatively modest across most of the warm sector, but veering wind
profiles will support effective shear generally above 40 kt,
sufficient for supercell development in the presence of strong
instability. 

The primary uncertainty is the coverage and location of storm
diurnal storm development, with only subtle vorticity maxima
expected to overspread the warm sector. However, at least isolated
storm development will be possible near the dryline, with increasing
storm coverage expected near the warm front by afternoon/evening.
Any sustained supercells will pose a threat of very large hail and
tornadoes, with a strong tornado possible as the low-level jet
increases into the evening. MCS development will also be possible
Wednesday evening near/north of the warm front, aided by a strong
low-level jet. 

Farther south, the subtle subtropical shortwave trough could support
a secondary maximum of storm coverage from southwest into central
TX, though this scenario is more uncertain. The Marginal Risk has
been expanded across much of TX, with some potential for initial
isolated supercells to evolve into one or more storm clusters into
Wednesday evening as they move eastward.

..Dean.. 04/29/2024

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