Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted April 30 Administrators Share Posted April 30 Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement on Friday/D4 showing an upper trough lifting north out of the upper MS Valley and across western Ontario, with a deep upper low moving south just off the coastal Pacific Northwest. High pressure will exist over the Plains in the wake of the northern trough, and is forecast to persist into Saturday/D5 as a secondary lobe rotates the parent Ontario low. While a moist air mass over the southern Plains and Gulf Coast will support thunderstorms during this period, little organization or shear is forecast. From Sunday/D6 onward, spread becomes large amongst the model ensembles, especially in regard to the West Coast low and possible trough amplification as it moves ashore. That said, the overarching theme through D8 and perhaps beyond is for rising heights across the East, and a mean trough across the West, which may eventually prove favorable for moisture return, large-scale ascent and shear across parts of the central CONUS. Some models such as the ECMWF suggest a multi-day period of very strong to extreme instability, as well as southwest flow aloft across the central and southern Plains toward the MS Valley. While predictability is low that far out, the evolution of this pattern will be watched closely. Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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