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SPC May 9, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook


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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH FLORIDA...SOUTH GEORGIA...AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible Friday
across parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds should be the main
threat.

...Southeast...
A compact but intense bow/MCS may be ongoing Friday morning across
parts of south GA into north FL. The location of this bow, its
intensity, and potential longevity to the Atlantic Coast remain
rather uncertain at this time. Still, a moist and unstable airmass
should be present across the Southeast Friday morning, along and
south of a cold front. A convectively augmented mid-level vorticity
maximum should accompany the small bow across the central Gulf Coast
vicinity. This feature and attendant enhanced mid-level westerly
winds should provide sufficient deep-layer shear for continued
organization of the bow as it moves quickly eastward Friday morning
across the remainder of north FL/south GA, and eventually off the
Atlantic Coast. Severe/damaging winds will likely be the main
concern with this MCS, although an embedded tornado or two also
appears possible. Have included a Slight Risk where damaging winds
appear most likely with the morning convection. However, a faster
progression than currently forecast may require further adjustments
to the corridor of greatest severe threat.

In the wake of this morning activity, additional convective
development and evolution across the Southeast remains unclear.
Robust thunderstorms could regenerate across parts of north FL on
the outflow of the morning MCS, with both a hail and wind threat
given a favorable environment forecast. Severe probabilities have
been expanded southward some across the FL Peninsula to account for
this plausible scenario. Other isolated strong to severe convection
may develop along or just ahead of the south-southeastward moving
cold front Thursday afternoon. This seems more likely to the north
of the morning MCS across parts of the Carolinas, and perhaps
north/central GA. Occasional damaging wind gusts and hail should be
the main threats if this thunderstorms develop in this somewhat
separate regime.

...West/South-Central Texas...
A cold front should decelerate as it moves southward across TX on
Friday. Modest easterly low-level flow will impinge on the higher
terrain of northern Mexico. At this point, it appears that
large-scale ascent will remain nebulous, with a belt of modestly
enhanced westerly mid-level flow persisting. A strong thunderstorm
or two may attempt to develop either along the cold front, or across
northern Mexico in the low-level upslope flow regime. Regardless,
the threat for severe convection across west/south-central TX still
appears too uncertain/conditional for low severe probabilities at
this time.

...Upper Midwest...
A shortwave trough will dig southeastward across the Upper Midwest
Friday. Limited low-level moisture and weak instability should be in
place across this region. But, strong/gusty winds may still occur
with low-topped convection that may develop and spread quickly
southeastward as low-level lapse rates steepen with daytime heating.
The potential for severe winds currently appears too limited to
include any probabilities.

..Gleason.. 05/09/2024

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