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SPC May 9, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook


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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across
parts of west Texas.

...West Texas...
A closed upper low should move eastward across the Four Corners
region on Saturday while gradually transitioning to an open wave. A
belt of modestly enhanced mid-level westerly flow should remain over
parts of northern Mexico into the southern Plains. At the surface, a
stalled front draped generally west to east across TX may slowly
lift northward as a warm front, especially Saturday night. A
rich/moist low-level airmass will reside south of this front, with
modest low-level east-southeasterly flow forecast across parts of
west into south-central TX. Although large-scale ascent appears
generally weak/nebulous, low-level upslope flow over the terrain of
west TX may help initiate thunderstorms by Saturday
afternoon/evening. Steepening mid-level lapse rates with adequate
buoyancy for sustained updrafts, in tandem with strong deep-layer
shear, should support some threat for organized thunderstorms.
Isolated hail and strong/gusty winds may occur with the more robust
cores across parts of west TX, where greater instability is
currently anticipated. Elevated convection may occur across a larger
portion of the southern Plains to the north of the front, but weaker
instability with northward/eastward extent across TX should tend to
limit the overall severe hail threat.

..Gleason.. 05/09/2024

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