Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted May 9 Administrators Share Posted May 9 Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... A positively tilted upper trough should progress eastward across the southern/central Plains on Day 4/Sunday. Low-level moisture will attempt to advance northward across TX in response, but it may be limited by generally elevated convection to the north of a warm front. Still, some severe risk may exist across parts of TX, if thunderstorms can form in the warm sector. This potential still appears a bit too uncertain to include a 15% severe area for Sunday at this time. Medium-range guidance remains in reasonably good agreement that the upper trough will continue advancing eastward over the lower MS Valley and Southeast early next week. Severe potential on Day 5/Monday will probably tend to focus over parts of central/east TX into LA, where the best instability and shear are currently forecast. However, there are potentially complicating factors, such as antecedent precipitation and uncertainty regarding the northward extent of the warm sector. This limits confidence to some extent in where the greatest severe threat will exist for Monday. For Day 6/Tuesday, the rich low-level moisture and related warm sector may tend to be confined fairly near/along the central Gulf Coast, with the upper trough moving over the Deep South. Too much uncertainty currently exists to include a 15% severe area for Tuesday across this region. Predictability of the upper-air pattern and severe potential across the CONUS becomes even more limited by Day 7/Wednesday and Day 8/Thursday. Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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