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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024

Valid 111200Z - 171200Z

Fire weather concerns appear limited through the extended period,
though localized concerns may emerge across portions of the
Southwest amid persistent warm/dry conditions. Long-range ensemble
guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the
overall synoptic regime through the beginning of the upcoming work
week. Mean longwave troughing should persist across the central to
western CONUS with embedded perturbations propagating across the
Southwest into the Plains. This will support intermittent rain
chances along and east of the Rockies through early next week, which
should limit fuel dryness. Ensemble consensus suggests that portions
of southern AZ/southwest NM will see low probability for wetting
rainfall through the extended period, which should aid in curing
already modestly dry fuels. Multiple days of elevated fire weather
conditions appear probable through the upcoming weekend and into
early next week based on both deterministic and ensemble solutions.
Fire concerns appear most likely on D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday across
southwest NM and far southeast AZ, but the probability of reaching
critical wind thresholds appears too limited to warrant risk
probabilities at this time. The potential for elevated conditions
will continue into the middle portions of next week over the
Southwest/Four Corners region, but the weak/low-amplitude nature of
the upper-level waves combined with notable spread in guidance
pertaining to mesoscale details suggests low predictability beyond
this weekend.

..Moore.. 05/09/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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