Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted May 9 Administrators Share Posted May 9 MD 0734 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO A LARGE PORTION OF ALABAMA Mesoscale Discussion 0734 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Areas affected...northeastern Mississippi into a large portion of Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 092139Z - 092315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Convective initiation is ongoing across northern Alabama, and will likely expand over the next 1 to 2 hours. New WW will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows a developing convective tower near Birmingham, near the intersection of a weak west-to-east baroclinic zone, and an outflow boundary from prior convection that extends southward/south-southeastward into southeastern Alabama. While large-scale ascent appears to be weak, an otherwise volatile environment is in place, with mixed-layer CAPE averaging 3000 to 4000 J/kg on the warm side of these boundaries, and strong mid-level westerly flow (in excess of 60 kt at mid levels). Should additional convection evolve -- as appears likely per the character of the cu field -- substantial severe-weather risk would accompany the storms. This would include potential for strong/damaging winds and very large hail. Some tornado risk could also evolve locally, given the presence of the aforementioned boundaries, though low-level flow/shear appears limited at this time. ..Goss/Hart.. 05/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 33578965 34068948 34108732 33468603 31848469 31578538 32008709 32768819 32928935 33578965 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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