Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted May 14 Administrators Share Posted May 14 MD 0787 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 0787 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0526 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Areas affected...portions of western Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 142226Z - 150000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple of isolated severe gusts and an instance of marginally severe hail may accompany any storms that can develop and mature. Given the sparse nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are attempting to initiate across portions of western TX ahead of a diffuse dryline, amid a synoptic environment characterized by weak forcing. Surface temperatures are reaching the mid 90s F in spots, which is breaching convective temperatures amid a deep (sfc-600 mb), uncapped boundary layer. Forecast soundings suggest modestly curved and elongated hodographs may support a transient, high-based supercell for any updraft that can intensify and become established. Within the deep boundary layer, lapse rates exceed 9 C/km, suggesting that isolated instances of severe gusts and perhaps hail may occur with any supercell structure given the aforementioned shear profiles. Nonetheless, the severe threat should be isolated at best, so a WW issuance is not currently anticipated. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... LAT...LON 31539905 31209922 31050042 31020149 32630218 34430252 35120231 34910127 33840031 32409936 31539905 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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