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Mesoscale Discussion 0786
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0524 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Areas affected...TN Valley

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242...

Valid 142224Z - 150000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242

SUMMARY...Gusty winds, along with some risk for marginally severe
hail, will continue along the leading edge of the MCS as it
propagates east this evening.

DISCUSSION...MS Valley trough is advancing slowly east this evening
as primary belt of stronger mid-level flow translates across the
central Gulf States. Mid-level temperatures are seasonally cool
north of this jet with 500mb values around -12C across the TN
Valley. As a result, modest buoyancy has developed ahead of the
trough with MLCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg into middle TN. While
much of this air mass has been convectively overturned, the ongoing
MCS is progressing through the main instability axis and will soon
begin to encounter less buoyancy. Damaging winds will likely
accompany the leading edge of the surging squall line for the next
few hours, but with time this activity should gradually wane over
eastern TN.

..Darrow.. 05/14/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   34388918 36488827 36478595 34388690 34388918 

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