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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

Western US ridging is forecast to slowly weaken through the
remainder of the week as northwest flow aloft trends more zonal.
Widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures are forecast over
the central and eastern US. Stronger flow aloft will remain
suppressed farther south over the CONUS, limiting fire-weather
chances in the short term. Into the weekend and early next week,
flow aloft will turn more southwesterly ahead of a deepening western
US trough. Dry and breezy conditions appear likely to support
critical fire-weather concerns over parts of the Southwest and
southern High Plains through the end of the extended forecast
period.

..Southwest and southern High Plains...
Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible through the
remainder of the week and into the weekend as modestly active
southern stream flow aloft continues over the southern US.
Confidence in sustained critical fire-weather conditions is low
through this time period owing to the potential for precipitation
and transient returning moisture. However, several days of warm
temperatures and drying may support locally elevated fire-weather
potential and drying of local fuels into the weekend. 

A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop
D6/Sun through D8/Tue as southwesterly flow aloft begins to move
onshore. Ahead of the southwesterly flow, a deepening lee cyclone
will bolster low-level surface winds behind a trailing lee
trough/dryline. With sustained winds likely to be near 15-25 mph
overlapping with RH values below 15%, elevated to critical
fire-weather conditions appear likely over parts of southern NM and
west TX. Medium-range and ensemble guidance have shown better
agreement/consistency in recent forecast cycles, though timing
differences persist earlier on D6/sun. As guidance continues to
converge on a solution, higher critical probabilities and refinement
of the exact areal extent of critical conditions will likely become
necessary.

..Lyons.. 05/14/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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