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MD 0802 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
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Mesoscale Discussion 0802
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Areas affected...southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 161812Z - 162045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are likely to develop after 19Z from southeast
Texas into southwest Louisiana. Large hail as well as damaging gusts
will be likely, and a brief tornado will be possible as well.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms stretching from central into northeast
TX continues to shift east/southeast, with prominent outflow.
Although the air mass ahead of this line continues to gradually
destabilize due to heating, a surge of rich boundary layer moisture
is moving in from the southwest, and this will provide a greater
contribution. GPS PWAT values will increase rapidly by over 0.50" as
the mid to upper 70s F dewpoints arrive. Indicative of this robust
moisture are cells forming within the warm advection zone just off
the LA Coast. 

Therefore, as the primary line of storms moves in from the
northwest, strengthening may occur especially where the line
intersects the warm front, with additional cells forming along the
length of the warm front. Damaging hail and wind will be likely.
Low-level shear along the warm front may support a brief tornado or
two as well, with 0-1 SRH values above 100 m2/s2.

..Jewell/Jewell.. 05/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   29719336 29609406 29229485 29779632 30349664 30739639
            31319562 31499525 31389406 31189334 30549240 29749104
            29339081 29089100 29359182 29519244 29719336 

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