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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z


...2000Z Update...
A surface low will deepen in the lee of the northern Rockies over
the High Plains of southeast Montana and northeast Wyoming Friday in
association with an approaching mid-level trough. The resulting
pressure gradient will support breezy westerly sustained surface
winds around 20 to 30 mph from central Montana into Idaho and
southwest Wyoming. There's still some disagreement on how low RH
will drop across northeast Idaho and far western/southwestern
Wyoming, as mentioned in the previous forecast. Regardless, recent
rainfall over this region and relatively low fuel receptiveness will
limit the overall fire spread threat.

..Barnes/Nauslar.. 05/16/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/

A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the northern Plains
today, supporting strong surface lee troughing over the northern
High Plains tomorrow (Friday). A widespread, strong surface wind
field will develop over Wyoming and points eastward as a result.
However, guidance varies considerably in terms of how low RH will
drop by afternoon peak heating, with some guidance members showing
RH dropping as low as 15 percent in some spots, while other members
show RH staying well above 25 percent in many locales. When also
considering recent rainfall that portions of the northern Plains has
received in the past week, fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread
should also be mediocre. Fire weather highlights have been withheld
given the aforementioned uncertainties with RH and fuels.
Nonetheless, localized instances of wildfire growth cannot be ruled
out where dry fuel beds exist given the strong winds.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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